Much of these new formations, with artillery, are heading for the Donbas. Other hard figure, there are 22 BTGs undergoing refit outside of Ukraine (mostly one assumes from the Kyiv assault)

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 18, 2022

So as a percentage of BTGs, Russia has lost 25-32%. Thats considerable (and doesnt take into account other losses from Airborne, Marines, Militia and Spetnaz. So the Ukraine estimate of just over 20k KIA—is very plausible.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 18, 2022

US also seems to be moving very swiftly on getting at least some aid to Ukraine. 4 flights in the previous 24 hours with one more soon. Thats a considerable pace. https://t.co/jG07zwNLd8

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 18, 2022