re: #26 goddamnedfrank

Not sure about that. The only fairly reliable support Bush can count on is from voters currently going for Rubio, Christie and Kasich, giving him between 23 to 25%. Trump is already past that on his own. On the other side Trump has the money to stay in and can for now count on the bulk of supporters from Cruz, Carson, Huckabee, and Jindal and Santorum to eventually funnel their way towards him. Meaning the anti Bush protest vote is already looks to be around 55, maybe even 60%. It’s also not clear to me where Walker’s supporters end up going if he’s forced to drop out.

If I were Jeb’s people I’d be very, very worried about where this is headed.

Trump has high unfavorables which I believe put a ceiling on him which will prevent his nomination. I learned last time around that the establishment will usually get its candidate even if he is flawed. I thought there was no way the man who enacted the model for Obamacare could be nominated for President by the GOP, but Charles correctly predicted that Romney would be the nominee even when he was struggling to stay ahead of the likes of Santorum and Gingrich. Don’t get me wrong, I would love for Trump to be the GOP nominee; I just don’t think its likely we will be that lucky.