re: #313 Targetpractice, Worst of Both Worlds

It’s good for Romney because it means he’s now virtually uncontested for the nomination, barring a sudden resurgence from the peanut gallery.

It’s bad for the Tea Party because it now means that, after weeks of finding other candidates wanting, they’ve either got to decide to prop up somebody they’re less-than-impressed with or hold their nose and support Mittens.

The anti-Romney voters appear to be about 70% of the Republican party. At the same time, the alternatives are tanking badly.

If Romney continues to get only about 30% of the votes in the actual primaries, because of the changed methodology it means he won’t have enough delegates to win by the time the conference rolls around. His only hope of avoiding that is also his greatest fear: the race turns into a two-person race instead of a race between a dwarf and several pygmies. With “only” two candidates, the delegates will split and inevitably one will get over half. The fear is that because the anti-Romney segment is so large he’ll be an also-ran again.

I figure we’ll know after Super Tuesday at the latest, and there’s a fair chance we’ll see enough withdrawals in the next couple of months and know sooner.

But it’s all guesswork — anybody who tells you it’s certain is a fool or a liar.