re: #365 goddamnedfrank

That’s the combination of t-distribution mixed with his trendline adjustment. Nate is tuning directly into the biggest source of meaningless noise, which is ironic since he wrote a whole book titled The Signal and the Noise. He knows damned well what he’s doing, he redesigned his model this year exactly so it would be this reactive and want to pull towards a horserace.

Nate Silver’s model is starting to sound like a statistical version of differentiating noise. That’s never a good idea.