re: #367 Naso Tang

Of course it plays a role, but it didn’t help in Iran.

Think about it. If Iraq, possibly still occupying Kuwait and threatening Saudi, was still the largest military in the Arab world and perfectly willing to use it, do you really think that would have no effect on the other dictators nearby?

Whether one supported the war(s) in Iraq or not I think it will in retrospect be seen as the trigger for what has followed.

Possibly still occupying Kuwait? How far back are we going in order to set up this hypothetical? It’s pretty hard to find people that think that Desert Storm was controversial.

I’m certainly no expert, but I see Iraq and Iran as counter-balancing weights on a scale. Iran would not have sit still while Iraq tried to take over Saudi oil fields. Not to say that they’re friends, they’re certainly not, but Iran would have seen an opportunity to force Iraq to fight a two-front war. Conversely, by knocking the head off Iraq, we have given Iran the opportunity to be an unopposed regional power.

I certainly won’t argue how things will be perceived, and there’s no way to know if Iraq accelerated things, but the bottom line point I was trying to make is that I don’t believe that people are suddenly seven years later looking at Iraq sans Saddam and revolting. I think this is a natural outcome of the information revolution and the spread of cheap portable communications more than anything.