Greets and saluts from the NYC metro area. I see that some folks are discussing Zbig’s asinine comments about shooting down IAF aircraft if they overfly Iraq on their way to deal with the Iranian nuke threat.

There are a couple of not so subtle messages there - and they reflect the audiences for which they were meant.

It was meant to reassure the Iraqis, Saudis and others that Israel wouldn’t go off the handle and take on the Iranians - that the US could somehow constrain them.

It also was a not so subtle message to the Iranians that the US wasn’t going to allow Israel pursue its own security objectives. It was also meant for domestic US consumption, and that the US was still trying to exert its influence on the region and with Israel - that we aren’t going to tolerate Israel going and acting unilaterally.

Of course, this all is done out in the public eye, and the Iranians take away with the biggest prize - that the US seemingly isn’t going to engage in a confrontation with Iran over its nuke program. Rather than trying to keep this in backchannels to coordinate efforts to stop Iran across the region (and Iranian nukes threaten not just Israel, but every other Sunni dominated country in the region), Zbig does what he’s always done - run off at the mouth and made a bigger issue out of something that was better kept under wraps.

Anyone following the ME would know that the US tries to coordinate security matters with its allies in the region, including Israel. They want to try and contain Iran, and Israel going lone wolf on Iran would present all manner of difficulty - primarily because it would require flying through Arab airspace to do so (not that they hadn’t done so before - Osirak 1981, but the difference is the vast difference in distance involved here) and with US aircraft in the air over Iraq.

No, what we need to keep in mind is that the US doesn’t want Israel going lone wolf on Iran, but that we aren’t going to tolerate an Iranian nuclear program. Taking the military option off the table emboldens the Iranians, particularly since the Iranians know that the Israelis might just do so. This calls for a strategy of ambiguity - not to let the Iranians know what will happen and leave the cards on the table rather than showing that we’ve got nothing but a crap hand.