re: #396 Bagua

Unfortunately it is, have you forgotten the 2008 high of $147 bbl? Which then plunged to $33, and is now at $77? It is all based on wild speculation.

I’m still optimistic. Which is counter-intuitive for my typical cynicism. OPEC and other producers can easily take up the slack to cover the 313 million barrels. Plus I even just read this:

OPEC Cuts Forecast Demand for Its Crude as Outside Supply Rises

June 9 (Bloomberg) — The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it will need to pump less crude than previously thought this year as production from outside the group increases more than forecast.

OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, estimates members will need to produce 28.77 million barrels of crude a day to satisfy demand for the year, according to its monthly oil market report. That’s about 70,000 barrels a day fewer than last month’s projection. The producer group left its forecast for world oil demand for this year unchanged.

“This would leave no room for additional crude oil supplies in the market,” the Vienna-based secretariat said in a monthly report today. “Oil market fundamentals continue to be impacted by the persistent overhang in supply.”

CONTINUES

Now, I am ignoring the impact it will have on the Gulf Coast states which is a different matter however it will create a drag on any recovery.