re: #39 thecommodore

This is a very rough estimate of what the electoral college looks like right now, based on RCP data, and the article posted earlier about Biden’s slim lead in Texas. I’m sure Nate Silver will have much more reliable data pretty soon.

That said, Biden is also within striking distance in North Carolina and Iowa. Going way out on a limb, maybe even Georgia, given how well Stacey Abrams did there in 2018, and the possible disaster of Brian Kemp re-opening the state prematurely (I’d hate for that to be the reason Biden would win the state, but that has to be factored in).

With all that said, yes, it’s early.

And yes, it also looked very bad for Trump in 2016 on more than one occasion, and he still won. My take on that is that Clinton let him back into the race because she didn’t take him seriously enough as a candidate - she correctly paid attention to how unfit he is, but didn’t spend enough time on her own platform. Perhaps because, like many of us, she thought the GOP had shit the bed by nominating Trump and she could cruise. That, and of course, “her emails,” Comey, sexism, the Russians, etc etc etc.

That’s why Biden has to NAPALM Trump the way LBJ did to Goldwater. Campaign like he’s five points behind even if he’s up by ten. Just deliver as much of an electoral curb-stomping as he can. Make them fucking pay for the way they have enabled/collaborated with him. Devastate them to the point where even the Kochs save them. Thing is, I don’t think Biden has the killer instinct LBJ had, which is why even if he does win, I’ll still be very worried about the GOP, because they have Pence, Leningrad Lindsey, Cruz, and young guns like Cotton working their way through the minors.

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I’m looking at that map and based on the data I’m looking at I’d move Iowa to leaning Biden. I also can see Alaska, Montana and Kansas (!) as tossups based on how the Republicans fucked up at the state level especially in Kansas and Alaska!