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Overnight Open Thread

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lawhawk6/08/2009 6:57:34 am PDT

re: #402 _RememberTonyC

The North Koreans might have more than a million men under arms, but there’s no word on how well they’re trained or motivated. Much more of a concern are the thousands of artillery pieces trained on Seoul. That’s the real threat - far more than the nukes and convicting reporters in kangaroo courts.

If a shooting war breaks out, Seoul is going to bear the brunt of the fighting, despite the best efforts of the US, South Korean and Japanese forces that can deploy and go after the North’s military infrastructure.

As for China’s ability to leverage and prod North Korea to do its bidding, I think the Chinese are seriously misreading their influence. It appears that they have none, and were just as surprised at the North’s nuclear tests as everyone else. The US and the Six Party talks had been relying heavily on Chinese influencing the North’s actions, but with that gone, those talks aren’t going to go anywhere good.

The North is banging the war drums, and intel on intentions is sorely lacking.