The strategy outlined below may be Russia’s dream and plan. But I suspect that Ukraine, drawing on the West for arms, expertise and ideas, is going to find a number of very successful counter-strategies. Sadly, there will likely be a lot of damage and destruction in the process.

(By the way, I was not surprised to find out a couple of days ago that the British SAS was embedded with a Ukrainian battalion in the Kyiv area. Left unsaid, was that it was probably there during the very successful Ukrainian guerilla operations that defeated the Russian attacks on Kyiv.)

Certainly, the Russians are very unlikely to out-produce the West. And most likely will lose such a manufacturing competition.

The next chapter of the war: “It will become an artillery war, fought at distances of dozens of miles, where Ukraine’s edge in the motivation and morale of its soldiers could be overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of Russian artillery pieces, tanks and attack helicopters.”

— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) April 17, 2022