re: #477 bratwurst

But by the same token, should he slip there (or only win by a few points) his campaign suddenly goes into critical condition. Aside from Michigan, there is no other early primary or caucus state where there is a significant number of moderates.

no question …. but early success tends to confer an image of “winner” on whomever starts fast. And sometimes a couple of early wins will cause others to drop out of the race. And once that happens, things can move quickly as the “also rans” start looking to hitch themselves to the “strong horse.” That is why politics in the US is so interesting.