re: #457 Bagua

Nope. Those figures on the leak are not supported. Just wild speculation and a vast exageration.

As to the top kill, of course there will be flow out the riser, but the idea is that the flow is passing through an obstruction and once that is overcome, the mud should flow downhole. Also, the pressure readings below the BOP do not indicate a free flow.

The apparent backside flow is believed to be constricted by cement and rocks.

I believe BP is being reasonably with their 60% - 70% probability. It will all come out in the investigation if they are lying. Why would they?

I hope you are right. As a former onsite well head geologist working offshore high-pressure wells, I fear you are dead wrong.

We shall see tomorrow.