re: #360 HappyWarrior

It’s going to be interesting to see how it breaks down. From what I understand the English are more anti-EU but the Scots are more pro-EU. Not sure but it will be interesting to see what happens anyhow.

It’s true that Scotland is heavily pro remain, and apparently recent polls have Northern Ireland pro remain over concerns about border controls with the Republic of Ireland, given that Leave campaigners had been quoted as saying they’re not in favour of the EU’s freedom of movement because immigration. London, which has more votes than Scotland and NI combined, is also speed to be pro-remain. Indeed, a lot of UK cities are pro-remain, versus pro-Brexit rural areas. (Sound familiar?)

That doesn’t mean it’s plain sailing for Remain. The state of the polls point to a knife edge vote, with lots of polls having either side ahead within the margin of error, and using differing methodologies, a level of Don’t Knows big enough to make a difference. (If you want to get in detail about that, I’d recommend reading James Kelly’s blog. For example, you’ll find that polls conducted over the phone tend to be more favourable to Remain.) The polls over the past couple of days appear to show a modest swing to Remain, and the being markets have swung towards Remain, but things are so close, it could be anyone’s guess, particularly given the turnout, which appears to be larger than the general election. (As a comparison, the last referendum, the Scottish IndyRef, got just under 85% turnout.)

Well probably know by about 3-4 am which way the wind’s blowing.