re: #496 Thanos

Thanos,
Of course run timings vary from year to year and from system to system. The point that I apparently made badly is that there is no indication that run timings are trending across the board in correlation to warming temperatures. In fact there is very little evidence that temperature plays much of a role at all in determining when a salmon returns to spawn. In southern southeast pink salmon returns have trended late in even numbered years due to a low water event in 2004 which prohibited the early portion of the run from spawning thereby removing the early spawners from the genetic pool. My real problem with the video is that it strongly implies that salmon run timing somehow supports global warming theory and it does not.

I looked at your link and I must say that I fail to see your point. I will summarize the charts from systems with enough historical data to be significant.

Kenai early King peaked in 2009 on 6/11.
Kenai early King historical peak - 6/12.

Kenai Sockeye peak #1 for 2009 - 7/16.
Kenai Sockeye historical peak #1 - 7/17.
Kenai Sockeye peak #2 for 2009 - 7/28.
Kenai Sockeye historical peak #2 - 7/25.

Kenai King late run peak for 2009 - 7/14.
Kenai King late run historical peak - 7/17.

Kasiloff Sockeye peak for 2009 - 7/15.
Kasiloff Sockeye historical peak - 7/15.

It just so happens that 2009 is an extraordinarily average year for salmon run timing and I stick by my claim that there has not been a discernible shift in salmon run timing in recent years. Furthermore, if there had been a shift in run timing it would then be a huge leap to attribute that shift to global warming.