As far as I care the only analysis that means anything is the FiveThirtyEight model (projects.fivethirtyeight.com) that uses all reputable state and national polls and runs 10,000 simulations each time. They give odds from their results. Trump had been creeping back into it over the last month. After big events like the conventions, debates, “bad weekends”…their simulations seem to take two days to have any statistically meaningful change. So start watching there by Thursday morning and that will tell you who “won” the debate.