Not much analysis from the press aside from hyperbolic headlines and the pundits have the weekend off but here’s a Finish dude with an opinion of what might happen….
Finnish Defence Force expert analyzes escalating Ukraine situation

“The worst-case scenario is that the Crimean administration embarks on a strong drive for independence. In this case, Russia will feel it must protect its own installations and military bases and therefore assume a presence in the Crimea, in effect leading the development towards autonomy. On the other hand, it could turn into a skirmish between the Crimea and Kiev. Either way, Russia will protect its own interests, as the agreement regarding the military base requires.”

Forsstrm notes that although there is a clear danger that one spark could set off a powder keg; he doesn’t believe that the Ukrainian Coast Guard and the Russian’s Black Sea troops will clash.

“I believe that the threshold to open fire is very high on both sides. I do not see it as likely to happen. As a matter of fact, I see Ukraine’s choice to move its Coast Guard vessels out of the harbour as essentially a protectionist measure. In this way they are not vulnerable to marauding leagues or other groups that may wish to take them over. This way they will remain under the leadership of Kiev,” says Forsstrm.