A couple of air war datapoints that may be of interest:

1. As the Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kyiv succeeds, Ukraine will need to move it’s forces to other fronts. When these forces move, they will become much more vulnerable to Russian air, drone and missile strikes.

2.All militaries tend to shoot down their own planes and bomb their own troops during combat…

Russia though, may be even more of an overachiever in this area. In the Georgia War of 2008, 3 or 4 of the 6 Russian aircraft lost were likely shot down by Russian air defense.

As they say, “Friendly fire isn’t”. Or as the old Air Defense saying goes “Shoot them all down and sort it out on the ground”.

I would suspect that the Ukraine raid on Belgorod is going to make Russian Air Defense even more trigger happy.

Additionally, both are using essentially the same equipment.