I should say, it is my opinion that the US will not sign (and the Senate approve), a treaty to reduce emissions in any significant amount until climate change becomes more manifest in the daily lives of Americans. Until then, we will talk a lot, we will fund a bit of adaptation/mitigation efforts especially for very poor countries.

US emissions have gone up fairly steadily the last couple of decades, in conjunction with our population increase. Even the “Great Recession” in which we find ourselves has made only a small dent.