Actually, the overdue “big one” in the New Madrid Seismic Zone doesn’t bear thinking about. St. Louis and Memphis alone have thousands of old masonry buildings that would crumble to dust at the first shock. The economic aftermath would be cataclysmic as well, with a large part of the country’s transport infrastructure blocked or destroyed by flooding and collapsed bridges.

“In a report filed in November 2008, The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency warned that a serious earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone could result in “the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the United States,” further predicting “widespread and catastrophic” damage across Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and particularly Tennessee, where a 7.7 magnitude quake or greater would cause damage to tens of thousands of structures affecting water distribution, transportation systems, and other vital infrastructure. The earthquake is expected to also result in many thousands of fatalities, with more than 4,000 of the fatalities expected in Memphis alone. According to some scientists, however, that is nothing compared to what an 8.0 earthquake could do to the New Madrid Region. An earthquake of that size on the New Madrid Fault would destroy 60 percent of Memphis, killing tens of thousands and causing over $50 billion dollars in property damage in the city alone.