re: #56 Big Beautiful Door

Quinniapac is assuming in its polls much lower minority turnouts than in 2012 with Obama off the ballot. I din’t think they are taking the Trump factor into account. Gallup made the same mistake in 2012 and produced erroneous polls showing Romney leading.

That might be true if the Repubs actively depress turnout of minorities.

Otherwise, that flies in the face of 40+ years of increasing minority voting—-the minority population itself has grown faster than the white population and not all of it is growth in the black community.