for those convinced that Trump’s re-election is inevitable… remember that a solid third of the electorate still isn’t ready to accept that it will be Trump and Biden in the general. Also, remember that he has never gotten more than 47% of the popular vote. The economy is doing well, inflation is down, and vibes are a lagging indicator.

But most importantly: most people still aren’t following the election closely. They are not seeing/hearing Trump on a daily basis. When they do, a lot of them are going to remember how much they dislike him. They’re also going to see how fucking crazy he sounds (forget going to 11, he’s at about 14 now).

My gut still tells me that Biden is going to win re-election fairly easily. So, I’m going to hold on to some cautious optimism.