re: #756 Bagua

The Iranians could get lucky, but most of their assets would be destroyed in the opening hours of any serious attack, which is why preemptive attack is the sensible choice, if not PC.

It would be in the Iranians best interest to absorb whatever surgical strike we announced, and avoid a serious blow to their military deterrent. It is unlikely they would do more than bluster at the UN.

You’re assuming they would already have their subs and ships at sea. And they have enough targets that if we went after their ASM batteries, they’d have time to evacuate the nuclear facilities.