re: #40 JohnnyReb

You would think the CIA would figure this out. Not one single video or personal appearance or verifiable photo of the guy in the last 5 years or so. Maybe that is a clue?

All the CIA can do is make assessments of likelihood. Theses are never zero; there is always some small chance that you don’t have all the information. Now, consider you’re in charge of assessing whether Binny is still alive or not. If you come out in favor of him being alive, and you turn out to be wrong, you’re praised for being cautious. If you come down on the other side - he’s dead - and he suddenly pops out from behind a rock somewhere, you are totally screwed six ways from Sunday. It’s a situation where the penalties for being wrong are extremely lopsided, and people understandably err on the more comfortable side.

Until someone walks in, like Peachy Carnehan, and drops Binny’s mummified head on your desk, you’re going to give much more support to any information even faintly suggesting he’s alive than you are to the otherwise overwhelming evidence that he’s a stain on a rock somewhere in Tora Bora.