re: #848 Bagua

Note that in the Iran/Iraq war, Iran was invaded, and by a rough equal in military capacity. Should the Iranian forces with the ability to attack US assets do so, they would be quickly neutralized, by aircraft they could not see or harm.

They would be essentially committing suicide. It would be the blind fighting those who can see.

For the US, a regrettable and potentially ugly task, but one well within ability. For Israel, an almost impossible task with conventional weapons in the current situation, and one that could lead to a major escalation.

I understand the difference between us striking them and the Iraqi invasion, what I’m saying is that they would most likely see it as an invasion—not an invasion by a neighboring Muslim army (regardless of how much they hate them), but an invasion by a completely foreign and much larger & threatening foe.

This would really reinforce the whole Ashura thing as it’s all about a fight in which the odds are are greatly stacked against you. It could easily trigger profound religious passions, even amongst more secular Iranians. IOW, to you it might look like suicide and therefore be something to be avoided at all costs; to them it might look more like brave, noble martyrdom in the face of impossible odds.

It wouldn’t take the deaths of too many innocents to fire up Iranian hearts & minds. The regime knows this and they know it well.