Argentina’s presidential election: The widow takes it all
The widow takes it all
Cristina Fernández is poised to win a second term. She should use it more constructively than the first one
A YEAR ago, when Néstor Kirchner died suddenly of a heart attack, Cristina Fernández seemed to have lost not just her husband and political partner but also her grip on power and appetite for it. That Argentina’s widowed president now looks certain to win a presidential election on October 23rd—and by a bigger margin than four years ago—is thus a personal triumph (see article). It is due to luck, skill and above all the post-traumatic stress that still scars Argentine society a decade after a financial collapse that resembles Greece’s plight today.
In December 2001, after years of grinding austerity, Argentina subsided into a debt default and devaluation, ending a decade in which the peso had been fixed at par to the dollar. Unemployment soared to over 20%, many savings were wiped out, and one person in two in what had been a broadly middle-class society found themselves below the poverty line. Five presidents came and went in short order as protesters prowled the streets. Their anger was directed against politicians of all stripes.
One of those temporary presidents, Eduardo Duhalde, stabilised the economy with sound fiscal and monetary policies; these, plus the devaluation, put Argentina on a path to export-led growth. But it was Mr Kirchner (elected president in 2003) and then Ms Fernández who reaped the political benefit of the ensuing boom. They gave short shrift to the holders of the defaulted debt—a stance some in Athens might envy. Yet the Kirchners were helped, too, by extraordinary strokes of luck: soaring world prices of the country’s farm exports, and faster growth next door in Brazil. (These are boosts that Greece would not enjoy if it followed the Argentine road.)
The Kirchners correctly judged that what mattered to an impoverished country was rapid growth and job creation. So they stuck with expansionary policies long after recovery was under way. When inflation took off—it is a little over 20%—they responded by doctoring the numbers. But Ms Fernández, whose political skills are often underestimated, has also protected Argentines from rising prices with a welfare scheme, subsidies and wage rises. She also attracted widespread sympathy because of her bereavement. All this has exempted her from the lasting public disdain for politicians that has hampered her opponents, including poor Mr Duhalde…