Battleground Tracking Poll: Obama retakes lead
As polling gets heavier in the final days they will skew back towards reality, pollsters can’t afford to be far off from the actuals if they want to stay in business. There’s no conspiracy here, it’s just that pollsters will invest a bit more in the final days and survey wider in the interests of getting the most bang for their polling dollars.
With eight days to go until the election, President Barack Obama has recaptured a narrow national lead over Mitt Romney, riding increased support from women and an edge in early voting.
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.
Obama leads by 8 points among those who have already voted, 53 to 45 percent. These early voters represent 15 percent of the electorate, with many more expected to vote in the next few days — though Hurricane Sandy could change that.
But the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are ‘extremely likely’ to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.
By any measure, the race is neck-and-neck: 43 percent say they will ‘definitely’ vote Romney, compared to 42 percent who say the same of the president.
Read more: politico.com