How Immigration Reform and Demographics Could Change Presidential Math
A bill to allow unauthorized immigrants to gain citizenship carries electoral risks and rewards for the Republican Party. On the one hand, if the bill were passed, some of those immigrants would eventually vote. Roughly 80 percent of illegal immigrants are Hispanic, and about 10 percent are Asian — groups that voted heavily Democratic in the last two elections.
On the other hand, such legislation could plausibly improve the Republican Party’s brand image among Hispanics and Asian-Americans, perhaps allowing the party to fare better among these voters in future elections. Which of these effects would outweigh the other?
The high-stakes question, in other words, is whether immigration reform would really allow Republicans to improve their vote share substantially among Hispanics and Asians, without costing them too many votes among white voters. If so, that is where the electoral “bonanza” might lie.
But, in the long run, any scenario here combined with the reality where it is the Tea Party Tail that is wagging the GOP Dog, means that in the long run, they are screwing the Pooch.