California Drought: El Niño Could Bring Big Storms Next Winter, New Report Says
Raising hopes that California’s severe drought could end with a series of soaking storms next winter, federal scientists on Thursday announced there is now a 2-in-3 chance of an El Niño climate pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean by the end of this year.
“We’re seeing a pretty strong tilt toward El Niño,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md.
But what could end one extreme could begin another: Researchers are particularly intrigued by an enormous mass of warm water flowing through the Pacific that has been linked to heavy winter downpours and flooding in the past.
The Golden Wheel mobile home park on Oakland Road in San Jose in February 1998, an El Nino year. (Mercury News)
On Thursday, NOAA meteorologists increased the likelihood of El Niño conditions to 66 percent by November — up from 52 percent last month, based on computer models and measurements from buoys, satellites and other equipment.