Bob Cesca’s Weak Midterm Election Analysis
Bob Cesca has a new article in the Daily Banter arguing that Democrats aren’t doomed in the upcoming midterm elections. While this is true for the Senate, he should not have pretended that Democrats are even close to retaking the House. Democrats are ahead in the polls by only 1% or so in the Realclearpolitics average, Cesca argues.
The problem is that Cesca does not provide context. Is a 1% lead enough for Democrats to overcome a 35-seat deficit? He does not say. Here’s some help. Political scientist Alan Abramowitz tells us what to expect depending on the Democrats’ generic ballot lead:
Even with a 5% lead, Democrats would win just 3 seats.
And remember, this 1% lead in RCP includes both Register Voter and Likely Voter samples. RV polls are guaranteed to be biased in favor of Democrats, because Democrats are historically more likely than Republicans to stay home, as we all know.
Cesca also failed to mention Larry Sabato’s current forecast: “Republicans net 5-8 House seats”
In conclusion, the House of Representatives is out of Democrats’ reach. Cesca’s analysis is wishful thinking.