How Accurate Are Scientific Predictions About Climate?
SOURCES ARE BELOW
First, some CORRECTIONS:
1) Jerry Taylor did leave the Cato Institute, and set up his own think-tank called the Niskanen Center. It also reflects Libertarian views.
2) Some reputable researchers have found that if the reduction in forcing due to CFCs (a greenhouse gas that was banned under the Montreal Protocol) is included, Hansen’s Scenario B temperature projection is even more accurate, and likely a bigger cause for him being slightly off actual temperature rise than the higher estimate he gave for the Earth’s sensitivity. So even leaving Hansen’s estimate for sensitivity as it is, a perfect reproduction of actual temperatures may be given given by including actual reduction of CFC emissions. My thanks to subscribers who pointed this out. Gavin Schmidt has written about this on RealClimate, and Zeke Hausfather is working on a paper showing it.
Whatever the reason for the difference, it doesn’t change the fact that Hansen’s temperature projection was almost spot on.
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I AM NOW COMPILING THE LIST OF SOURCES.
Sorry these didn’t appear with the video, it takes to list them all and match them to the times on the video. Here is what I have so far, more will follow:
0:00 – “DEBUNKED: Great Lakes Climate Change Hysteria!”
1:12 – AP story “2 Great Lakes hit lowest water level on record,” AP, 2/6/13
2:36 – “International Upper Great Lakes Study” at
2:50 — lre.usace.army.mil
4:29 – Fox news list at foxnews.com
4:34 – YouTube
5:05 – “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past” — The Independent, 20 March 2000
6:12 — wattsupwiththat.com
6:25 – www. realclimatescience.com
6:29 – IPCC report AR3, 2001
7:43 – “A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents” – Petoukhov and Semenov, Geophysical research Atmospheres 2009
9:29 – “Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment” – NOAA
9:37 – “Climate: Observations, projections and Impacts” — Met Office 2013.
10:49 — IPCC report “Summary for policymakers” 2007