Mideast fertility rates plunge
Arab birth rates in general are dropping dramatically, and that the number of births among women under the age of 20 is dropping even more sharply.
A level of 2.1 is required to keep a population stable. Anything less, and the population is likely to decline. The population of a country with a TFR of 1.3 may be expected to halve in 45 years.
Some Arab countries, notably Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Lebanon, are either below or very close to that stability level of 2.1. Algeria and Morocco, at 2.4, are dropping fast toward it. Some other Islamic countries are also in this zone of population stability or decline, including Turkey (2.1), and Indonesia (2.2). Iran is listed at 2.0, below replacement level, but even more recent data suggests that Iran’s real rate is around 1.7, according to the latest CIA Fact book. Some scholars put it even lower.