re: #99 guachi

Nate Silver and the 538 crew must be seeing some kind of movement towards Ds in either polls or enthusiasm or something. His ratings in the past week have take a strong turn towards Team D. Stronger than the movement on Cook Report. Both were similar base on a D wave of about 230 seats last week but today’s 538 has Ds up to 234.

That’s a lot of seats since I looked just six days ago!

The odds of Ds winning the House based on 538’s current numbers is 99.999%. Ran 100,000 random trials and the Democrats won the House in 99,999 of them. The odds aren’t that high on the 538 site because they add lots of leeway for other events.

But 99.999% and 234 seats seems pretty good, no?

I’m seeing 538 giving the Dems an 84.5% chance. still pretty good, but where are you seeing 99.999%

projects.fivethirtyeight.com