re: #110 Belafon

“Unskew the polls!”

I was just about to say that. There is never a uniform voter breakdown between polls, the electorate does not stay static from day to day. Hell, if you’d polled me 5 years ago, I’d have told you I was a die-hard Republican. Today, I’d sooner be shot dead than vote Republican again.

A singular poll, or even a pair of polls, will never show you the whole picture. You gotta go by the trend, weighing as many polls in a given period of time as possible and accounting for variables like turnout. In this particular case, Walker’s numbers have been trending downward for awhile now, so arguing that one poll showing a dead heat race is questionable based upon voter breakdown seems to missing the forest for the trees.