re: #112 palomino

I hope you’re right. What you describe held true in 2008. But I get the sense that a lot of Republicans and right-leaning independents who sat out 2008 will vote this time, and they’ll be voting against Obama more than anything else.

I think it remains to be seen. As we’ve seen already with the freepers, not all of the base is going to accept Romney. And while many will be driven to the polls by their hatred of Obama, others will likely decide that Romney’s an “Obama-lite” that they’d rather not vote for and either choose to “punish” the party by staying home or voting third party.

Additionally the economy is improving slowly, maybe too slowly for Obama to have the big advantage among independents he had in 2008. Up to now Obama seems to have the advantage over Romney, but he’s not the shoo-in he would have been with a 5.5% unemployment rate.

I think it comes down to which narrative the independents buy easier: The GOP one that says that Obama’s policies are why the recovery’s so slow or the Obama one that says the GOP acting like petulant children is why nothing’s getting done.