re: #112 palomino

But I get the sense that a lot of Republicans and right-leaning independents who sat out 2008 will vote this time, and they’ll be voting against Obama more than anything else.

I didn’t get the sense that many of them sat on the sidelines last election, or that even if any did, there’s anything about this election that would draw them in. The enthusiasm gap has closed, and Romney has historically low favorability ratings for a Republican candidate at this point in the election cycle.

We’re not talking about the active base here, those who are more driven by hatred of Obama. If any Republicans sat on the sidelines last election, it was probably the hardcore extremists who felt that McCain was too moderate for them. They might be just as likely to not vote for Romney.

I’m a born pessimist, so I’m not going to be counting any chickens, but I don’t see numbers that back up your perspective. Do you have a link or something?