re: #122 kirkspencer

My reading of the Bundy tea leaves:

First, as of right now despite the appearance BLM got what it wanted. That the negotiator was the county sheriff doesn’t make him Bundy’s buddy.

BLM sold a bunch of the cattle they seized. Bundy is getting about half that money back. The rest is being applied against the delinquent fees. The remaining cattle are being returned to Bundy.

Bundy agreed to have his cattle off federal land within 30 days. (A reasonable time, I think). That’s where the tea leaves come in.

See, I don’t think he’s going to follow through on his agreement. I think he really believes he got one over on the federal government and all he has to do is whistle up his supporters and keep doing things his way.

And that’s when it’s going to turn interesting. That’s when various liens get served for what amounts to the interest and added collection expenses. That’s when the de facto probation for kidnapping and threatening federal officials in the performance of their duties expires. If’n I were a betting man I’d happily wager that BLM, NPS (which was also involved), and a few other agencies are drafting a contingency plan for this confrontation to try to avoid excessive bloodshed.

Hopefully I’m wrong about Bundy. Hopefully since it was a (relative) local with whom he made this agreement, he abides by it. It’s just that his behavior for the past 20 years leads me to believe otherwise.

Agreed, Bundy’s a creature of habit, he won’t abide by the agreement. In 30 days, his cattle will still be trespassing and he’ll still be acting like he’s got a right to the land. And when the Feds show up again 30+ days, he figures he can just ring up his militia buddies, give them his sob story again, and he can push things to the point that he’s given another 30 day extension. But what he doesn’t realize is that this was his one last chance, there will not be another extension.

When the BLM shows up again, it will be with much more manpower and a lot more firepower. And when his buddies try again to intimidate them into backing down, they’re gonna find themselves behind bars or worse. The sheriff won’t be bailing him out again, because even if he tries to negotiate another deal to “keep the peace,” the BLM’s not gonna agree to it.