re: #12 Claire

What do they want this time? Food or something?

Basically, yep.

North Korea says war is inevitable if South Korea and the rest of the world does not show more respect (deliver more free food and fuel). The war threats have been coming from the north for over half a century, and don’t have much impact anymore. A much more confident South Korea believes that it could handle any North Korean military moves, from skirmishes up to a major invasion attempt (which the south wants to avoid, because it would do major damage to the southern capital.)

North Korea has increased its armed forces by 20,000 (to 1.19 million) over the past few years. This is one way to deal with growing unemployment, and keeping angry young men under control. The army has added 300 rocket launchers, but have kept many older (decades old) launchers and rockets in service. North Korea has increased its Special Forces (light infantry for sneaking through South Korean front lines and cause trouble) 180,000 troops.

There’s also this to consider:

Trying to punish North Korea further serves no useful purpose, because North Korea is punishing itself so severely. Last month, North Korea tossed out the foreign aid groups that handled distribution of donated food. At the same time, the north said it would no longer accept food from the United States. This leaves nearly half the North Korean population malnourished, with several million in danger of starving to death. It’s possible to monitor this, because of the increasing number of North Koreans escaping into China. South Korean and foreign aid groups can operate up there, and make contact with many of these refugees. Most of these people are malnourished and display stunted growth characteristic of lifelong poor diet. More importantly, the refugees describe conditions inside North Korea, and these confirm estimates of the extent of the famine that has lasted nearly two decades.

Most of those escaping lately have been older women, with their children. These women have made enough money in the markets (that have been legalized the last few years), and can afford the bribes demanded by North Korean and Chinese border guards. These women are also more likely to continue their journey, to Southeast Asia (usually Thailand) where they can get to South Korea. This has brought a lot of North Korean female teenagers to South Korea for the first time, and the culture shock is often severe. Going from the world’s worst police state, to a real democracy hits kids really hard, and it takes several years to get used to. This makes South Koreans more uneasy about what they would face if, and when, the communist government up north collapses.