BTW, current Arctic sea ice extent is at a record low.

Something which I’m sure all the news outlets run as a headline, no?

BTW², a new paper in GRL:

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

Put simply, variability in Arctic sea ice is such that one can’t accurately model the extent very far out. This ought not be surprising, as observations show that the Earth is losing Arctic sea ice faster than climate models had predicted in the past.