re: #114 goddamnedfrank

Looks like the tape is real, should be interesting to see what kind of deal Erdogan cuts with MBS and Trump to keep it from going public.

I don’t have the time to think through all of the possibilities, (or enough information to make it worth even attempting to do that), but I have a suspicion that Turkey might not be interested in a deal with MBS.

Normally, we don’t see how intelligence agencies gather information, as exposing that information makes it much easier for foreign nations to counter those information gathering procedures.

Right from the start Turkey has been revealing much more about their information gather abilities than you would expect including:

* They have audio recording capabilities inside the consulate’s most protected office.

* The ability to track individuals throughout Istanbul via CCTV.

* Given how quickly the Turkish authorities responded to the event, a very high chance that they had an information source that the murder was going to take place before it was going to take place.

If they were looking to do a deal with MBS, I’m pretty sure they could have done it via private channels that didn’t broadcast all of that information to every intelligence agency in the world.

I think there is a much higher chance that Turkey thinks that the current Saudi Regime is far too unstable, and is gambling that putting this information public is going to either put enough pressure on the Saudi regime to remove MBS, or would at least make his position be more tenuous, so that he’s not as likely to start any more wars.

Of course, if the Turkish intelligence services _do_ have audio of MBS overseeing the murder in realtime via skype (which is not impossible) then what I said might be completely moot, as that would still be a thing worth bargaining for, even after the cost of what info they have given away already.