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Overnight Video: The Damage Done

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lawhawk8/11/2010 8:32:24 am PDT

The math doesn’t work for GM, despite claims that an IPO are in the offing and that the feds are going to get their money back (and cede all or part of their 61% stake in the company).

During the middle of the last decade, in some of the best years the U.S. auto industry has ever experienced, the automaker racked up billions of dollars in losses. Now, even in one of the worst years the market has seen since the Great Depression, GM is moving solidly into the black. And with its increasing focus on foreign markets, particularly booming China, Whitacre & Co. insist the future is only brighter.

Which may be why the CEO also was broadly hinting last week that the entire government share, all 61 percent, could be offered up in the GM IPO. But the economics are daunting. The Treasury shelled out $40.7 billion for its 358.7 million shares. And if you have a calculator handy you can confirm that works out to $113 a share — even more when you factor in the cut the IPO’s underwriters will take.

Considering that Ford, widely praised as the current domestic industry success story, is trading at barely a tenth of that — though it also has 3.4 billion shares outstanding — it will be a stretch for GM to pull it off.

A stretch is the understatement of the day.