re: #155 NO SMOCKING GUN!

His only two hopes are 1) the GOP succeeds in demonizing his opponent to make her very unpopular like they did Clinton and 2) An independent draws lopsidedly from Democratic voters to let Trump squeak through in enough states to get to 270. Trump basically needs a replay of 2016.

There was 30 years of history to demonize Clinton with. Whomever is the nominee in 2020 isn’t going to have that. And no matter how hard he tries to make it about his opponent, a presidential election with an incumbent running is always a referendum on the incumbent.

As for an independent candidate, I just don’t see it happening. Schultz has no constituency that will get him traction. If there’s a couple of states where it’s close, the Dems will need to redouble GOTV efforts. I also suspect that there may be more likely that a Libertarian nominee (if it’s another former Republican who has held office) might draw significantly from Trump the way that Johnson did in 2016. (A vote for a third party nominee that would normally go to the Republican nominee is a good thing)