re: #181 spool32

I might be a bit off, yes. Looking at the numbers:

Kerry won Pennsylvania in 2004 by only 2.5%, Bush won Ohio by 2.1%. I could find numbers for Ohio and Pennsylvania for latino voters as a % of the total ballots cast but my sense fro looking at Indiana and Nevada (two places where the data is good) is that the GOP needs a floor of around 25% to have a shot at winning. Dip below that and you’re pretty well sunk. Rise above 30% and you see a strong correlated with a GOP win in the state. So I might’ve understated things a bit, but it’s not at all impossible for the GOP to win while pulling less than 1/3rd of the Latino vote in a battleground state, and doing so isn’t a tough challenge. They don’t need to win latinos to win… they just need to split the vote at a minimum 75/25 D/R.

So what’s the GOP’s plan, to lock the nativists in a trunk for the next year and a half? So long as the Tom Tancredo’s of the world are walking around free and unmuzzled, the GOP won’t hit double digits in the Hispanic community.

The GOP says “Build the dang wall”. the Hispanic voter hears “I want you the fuck out of my country.”

That’s one tough sell.