re: #188 NetworkKed

NH is polling at about Biden +10. It’s going to get called really fast.

I don’t really like the way the 538 choose-a-state thing is configured. Making any choice contrary to the polls yanks the entire map harder than a hypothetical really should. I understand where that math is coming from, but it reduces the polling and model input far more than I think a lot of users quite understand.

I think Nate has also wrongfully assumed a tightening. I like Nate but I think he needs to look beyond just ‘16 and ‘12 in his models. He’s better with numbers than I’ll ever be but I don’t think he understands voter psychology. We’re in a middle of a pandemic. Tomorrow is Halloween and people are going to remember all the fun they used to have that we can’t have because Trump fucked up the pandemic response. Covid is the elephant in the room that Trump can’t hide from and I think you will see that out in the results. He’s losing his hold on his claim that he knows what he’s doing with the economy too.