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Ichika Nito: When You Want to Be a Pianist but Your Parents Buy You a Guitar Instead

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Belafon10/30/2020 7:48:39 pm PDT

re: #188 NetworkKed

NH is polling at about Biden +10. It’s going to get called really fast.

I don’t really like the way the 538 choose-a-state thing is configured. Making any choice contrary to the polls yanks the entire map harder than a hypothetical really should. I understand where that math is coming from, but it reduces the polling and model input far more than I think a lot of users quite understand.

Nate’s model factors in that people really aren’t independent even if they are in different states. Regional issues will affect more than one state.