re: #158 Belafon

Remember this about individual polls:
1. If the MOE is 5%, then 1 in 20 polls are complete garbage.
2. Because of the MOE, you can have a large swing in either direction and still be valid. 50-46 isn’t that far out of whack compare to 53-41.

Another thing to keep in mind is that 46% was roughly the vote percentage trump got in 2016 (meanwhile, HRC was 48%). The reason she lost the EC (in addition to all the voter suppression fuckery) was the unusual degree of third-party defection. Therefore, the number to pay attention to isn’t so much where trump is, but whether or not Biden is 50% or more (and from what I’ve seen, he’s reached that magic number far more often than HRC…in fact, I’m not sure there ever was a national poll showing her over 50%, let alone a battleground one).

Plus, I always figured Dems should head into this election assuming trump’s 2016 total would either stay the same or slightly grow, which in turn means they’d need to concentrate on turnout, turnout, turnout (remember, Mitt Romney lost in 2012 with 47 percent!)