re: #212 goddamnedfrank

The only reason he’s leading is because few people realize that his 9-9-9 plan completely defunds and destroys Social Security and Medicare.

That sort of stuff is why I want 100 to 1 odds. That, and his lack of seasoning in the political arena, make his candidacy quite a long shot, despite the strong showing for the time being.

I don’t see why the new tax structure would have to mean a complete end to those programs. They could be funded, to some extent, out of the general revenue.

Those programs are in trouble with or without Cain’s tax suggestions being written into law.

The Obama administration, right now, is partially defunding social security with its nominally temporary reductions in SS rates. How likely is it that the previous rates can be reinstated? Even if this near-recession eventually steers clear of a double dip and winds down, even if per capita GDP eventually perks up, the secular trend toward higher earnings for the particularly skilled, the ones qualified to work for Siemens in mfg, the ones qualified to be engineers or executives etc., and lower earnings for everybody whose job has disappeared as computers revolutionize the economy, will continue. The ongoing failure of so many of our schools just exacerbates this.

(Some high skill jobs are going to be disappearing too, e.g. the MD’s who screen pathology slides for cancer. There’s software coming that can do that.) So, with an accelerating trend towards real, before tax, earnings being higher for some, and lower for most, reinstating a tax that falls equally on all except the rich, and less heavily on them, figures to be politically impossible.

So social security intake will fall further behind its currently scheduled outlays. Outlays will have to be cut, either across the board, or through means testing, or both.