re: #259 Blind Frog Belly White

You know, to me KJU’s actions suggest less a man who has been successfully threatened into negotiating, and more a man who finally holds the cards he feels he needs.

We’ve had the ability to overthrow the NK regime since the 50s. It always came with a price, but that price - for us - was mostly limited to troops we had in SK. There was always the possibility we’d decide the price was acceptable.

Now, for the first time, NK can credibly threaten an attack on the US mainland that could kill millions. Right up until the large, successful Hydrogen bomb test last September and the successful test of a missile that could reach anywhere they seemed to be rushing headlong towards conflict.

Then they stopped, and started talking about peace. Trump, desperate for anything he can use to show how great he is, accepts an invitation for a summit. All the years NK’s nuclear program has been going on, and all the years before that, no American President agreed to meet. Now that NK presents a credible threat to us, NOW we agree to meet.

Trump wants people to see this as a strong leader using a credible threat to get a recalcitrant opponent to bend to that leader’s will. And it sure looks like it. Except the strong leader with the credible threat is Kim Jong Un, and the recalcitrant opponent who bends to his will is Trump.

The conventional wisdom that North Korean leadership was just irrational always seemed to strike me as foolish. There is a very rational reason to pursue nuclear weapons. Countries with nuclear weapons don’t get invaded or otherwise have their governments overthrown. Countries without nuclear weapons have a less successful track record: South Africa; Libya; Iraq; Afghanistan.

And I’m not sure the sanctions on top of sanctions on top of sanctions approach was useful either. You force North Korea outside the normal world order, they can do as they please. If they’re better integrated into the world order, it’s harder for them to do things like constantly threaten war.

But diplomacy is hard and bombing the shit out of people is easy, especially with our military.