re: #255 Blind Frog Belly White

The ability of Israel to hit Iranian nuclear facilities is not quite the same as its ability to have hit Syrian or Iraqi nuclear facilities in 2007 and 1981, respectively. First and foremost, the distances involved would mean a far more difficult route.

Iran has also dispersed its nuclear facilities to avoid the problems seen with a consolidated facility as in Osirak or al-Kibar. That means you need more planes and more routes in and out of the country. Even if you’re flying with buddy stores, you’re going to cut it close. In fact, you’re not going to make it, especially if you’re likely to encounter enemy aircraft.

Firing off long range missiles isn’t likely a good alternative either, not when you’re going to shoot through Jordan/Iraq/Kuwait and into Iran.

Israel could fire missiles from its subs, but getting them into position in the Persian Gulf would be tough. And you again run the risk of missing the targets altogether, which are purposefully located in and near populated areas like Tehran, Qom, Bushehr, etc.

Here’s the rub though. Despite all of Netanyahu’s complaints about the deal, the US hasn’t blocked or overruled Israel’s right to self defense. If Israel is threatened, they’re going to be able to defend themselves.

Israel has gotten a major boost from the Obama Admin. to deploy more Iron Dome systems, and Patriot systems; together those should provide a measure of protection against ballistic missiles from Iran. But that also assumes that Iran will simultaneously develop not only the nuclear materials but the miniaturization of the nuclear weapon tech to make it feasible to launch them on a missile.

And Israel is hardly alone in worrying about Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but we didn’t have the new Saudi king or Jordan’s King Abdullah, or the Kuwaiti leaders or Gulf State Emirs speak before Congress to complain about a deal.