re: #15 Obdicut

A brokered convention would be very interesting.

But it won’t happen, not based on what we’re seeing.

1) 80% of delegates are assigned delegates. ~1/3 of assigned delegates come from winner-take-all dates. Romney should get all of them given it’s a plurality issue. Romney gets ~27% of total here.

2) ~20% of delegates are unassigned aka super-delegates. Using history as a guide, Romney will get half to 3/4. Call it 2/3 for simplification, or another 13% of total. He’s now at ~40%.

3) 2/3 of assigned delegates are assigned proportionally. However, it’s only those who top 10% or 15%, or top three, or both. New Hampshire is an example; only Romney (7), Paul (3), and Huntsman (2) got delegates. Romney’s plurality tends to become at least half of actual assignments. That’s half of 2/3 of 80%, or 1/3 of 80%, or another ~27%.

At this time Romney is looking at ~67% of total delegates.