re: #25 kirkspencer

re his chances of winning, I reference (can’t find to link) my comment the other day about how it really depends on how big and unified the Tea Party is among the Republican Party. Yeah, they’re loud, but how big are they?

Noisy but small, it’s Romney.
Large and Unified, it’ll be a tea partier with the winner determined before the convention.
Large but splintered and the resolution happens at the convention - buy shares in popcorn.

I’m convinced it’s more the third situation, but I think that the splintering is gonna ultimately favor Romney, as the rest of the pack will split the Tea Party badly. You’re probably right that it will go to the convention, which will only increase the GOP’s problems, as it will mean spending the entire summer engaged in political trench warfare.